Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $849,371$ on 2020-10-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,030,141.2}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 151.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,030,141.2\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $33,305$ on 2020-10-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,568.2}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 128.7)}}\) (asimptote \(35,568.2\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $77,877$ on 2020-10-11
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $138,574$ on 2020-10-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{142,088.3}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 132.1)}}\) (asimptote \(142,088.3\))
Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,308$ on 2020-10-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,188.4}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 149.7)}}\) (asimptote \(10,188.4\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $29,163$ on 2020-10-11
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,094,979$ on 2020-10-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,347,086.0}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 137.8)}}\) (asimptote \(5,347,086.0\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $150,488$ on 2020-10-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{153,415.0}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 118.0)}}\) (asimptote \(153,415.0\))
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $418,098$ on 2020-10-11
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $481,371$ on 2020-10-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{441,685.4}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 106.9)}}\) (asimptote \(441,685.4\))
Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $13,318$ on 2020-10-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,437.3}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 106.9)}}\) (asimptote \(12,437.3\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $14,701$ on 2020-10-11
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $147,033$ on 2020-10-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{167,502.6}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 137.6)}}\) (asimptote \(167,502.6\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $12,191$ on 2020-10-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,012.7}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 226.2)}}\) (asimptote \(28,012.7\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $6,708$ on 2020-10-11
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $911,316$ on 2020-10-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{958,726.6}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 156.1)}}\) (asimptote \(958,726.6\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $27,834$ on 2020-10-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,478.4}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 143.2)}}\) (asimptote \(29,478.4\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $93,695$ on 2020-10-11
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $894,206$ on 2020-10-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,345,092.8}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 191.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,345,092.8\))
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $23,868$ on 2020-10-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{351,257.0}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 296.2)}}\) (asimptote \(351,257.0\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $148,958$ on 2020-10-11
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,051$ on 2020-10-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,156.7}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 150.5)}}\) (asimptote \(5,156.7\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $107$ on 2020-10-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{123.3}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 144.8)}}\) (asimptote \(123.3\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $99$ on 2020-10-11