Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in South America⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Peru⮸

Population $32,971,854$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $849,371$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,030,141.2}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 151.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,030,141.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $33,305$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,568.2}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 128.7)}}\) (asimptote \(35,568.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $77,877$ on 2020-10-11

Bolivia⮸

Population $11,673,021$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $138,574$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{142,088.3}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 132.1)}}\) (asimptote \(142,088.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8,308$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,188.4}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 149.7)}}\) (asimptote \(10,188.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $29,163$ on 2020-10-11

Brazil⮸

Population $212,559,417$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,094,979$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,347,086.0}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 137.8)}}\) (asimptote \(5,347,086.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $150,488$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{153,415.0}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 118.0)}}\) (asimptote \(153,415.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $418,098$ on 2020-10-11

Chile⮸

Population $19,116,201$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $481,371$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{441,685.4}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 106.9)}}\) (asimptote \(441,685.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $13,318$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,437.3}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 106.9)}}\) (asimptote \(12,437.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $14,701$ on 2020-10-11

Ecuador⮸

Population $17,643,054$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $147,033$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{167,502.6}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 137.6)}}\) (asimptote \(167,502.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $12,191$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,012.7}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 226.2)}}\) (asimptote \(28,012.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,708$ on 2020-10-11

Colombia⮸

Population $50,882,891$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $911,316$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{958,726.6}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 156.1)}}\) (asimptote \(958,726.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $27,834$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,478.4}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 143.2)}}\) (asimptote \(29,478.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $93,695$ on 2020-10-11

Argentina⮸

Population $45,195,774$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $894,206$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,345,092.8}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 191.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,345,092.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $23,868$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{351,257.0}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 296.2)}}\) (asimptote \(351,257.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $148,958$ on 2020-10-11

Suriname⮸

Population $586,632$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,051$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,156.7}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 150.5)}}\) (asimptote \(5,156.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $107$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{123.3}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 144.8)}}\) (asimptote \(123.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $99$ on 2020-10-11

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Bolivia recovered 52%
Venezuela recovered 36%

Venezuela⮸

Population $28,435,940$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $83,137$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{96,317.7}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 168.8)}}\) (asimptote \(96,317.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $697$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{858.9}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 160.1)}}\) (asimptote \(858.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,776$ on 2020-10-11